2024 Texas Primary Election Analysis
Montgomery County increases Republican turnout; Democrat voter turnout down statewide.
March 18, 2024
When comparing statewide Texas Presidential Primary voting cycles (2020 vs. 2024), there was a notable decline in voter turnout this cycle with the entirety of the decline happening in the Democrat vote.
What is interesting is that Texas currently has 17.9 million registered voters and only approximately 3.2 million participated in the 2024 Primary. However, in 2020, more than 4 million votes were cast in the Texas Primary with only 16.2 million registered voters. (Statewide results of the 2024 Primary are still unofficial.)
The Democrat voter decline was likely due to the Democratic presidential ticket. Not only was there little competition for Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, there also was less enthusiasm for Biden than in 2020.
In addition, Democrat voters were encouraged to cross over and vote in the open Texas Republican Primary to try and select the most left-leaning candidates. Thankfully, enough Conservative Republicans voted in the 2024 Primary to counter this interference at the polls. It is vital for Republican voters to put pressure on their Texas Legislators in the 89th Texas Legislative Session to enact a Closed Primary system in Texas.
Montgomery County Increases Republican Turnout
While Montgomery County is the eleventh largest county in Texas in terms of population, our county far outpaced the voter turnout of all the other large counties in terms of voter percentages, making Montgomery County the “Reddest” large county remaining in Texas.
In 2020, Montgomery County Republicans had a 71.22% to 27.39% advantage over Democrats. In 2024, of the 92,450 votes cast in Montgomery County, 82,265 were GOP votes, meaning that 88.98% of the voters in Montgomery County were Republican.
Although voter turnout across the state was down, in Montgomery County the GOP vote increased by 17,000 votes compared to 2020. So why is Montgomery County able to continue to turn out the Republican vote so consistently?
Grassroots Volunteers Battle Left-Leaning RINOs and Pro-Gambling PACs
Many would point to Montgomery County’s robust grassroots conservative organizations as a reason for the county’s increased Republican voter turnout. Montgomery County is blessed to have many passionate patriots and groups like the Montgomery County Tea Party, Texas Patriots PAC, Montgomery County Eagle Forum, Faith Votes - We the People, the Montgomery County Freedom Caucus, True Texas Project, God’s Digital Angels, and other organizations that educate local Conservatives. Several of these groups have fully engaged volunteers willing to take on the RINOs and Democrats at a moment’s notice. You can find out more about these grassroots conservative organizations here.
This election cycle was especially revealing as the aforementioned grassroots organizations found themselves in a pitched battle with the local Good Ole’ Boy RINO cabal, which was well funded by the Texans for Opportunity and Prosperity PAC, multi-millionaire House Speaker Dade Phelan, the Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC, and the Las Vegas Sands gambling lobby. Despite those organizations spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to prop up local RINO candidates like censured Montgomery County Republican Party Chairman Bryan Christ, the Montgomery County grassroots stood tall and prevailed in a landslide.
Montgomery County Sheriff Runoff Election
The Montgomery County grassroots has one Primary race remaining - the runoff election between our incumbent Constitutional Conservative Sheriff Rand Henderson and his opponent, former Texas Ranger Wesley Doolittle. We urge all Conservative Republicans to do your research before heading to the polls. Your vote is very important, especially in a runoff election!
Texas House Races
In the national and statewide races there were no real surprises, but there was certainly some excitement in the Texas House races.
Following the impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton by the Texas House, Paxton targeted 37 House Members who voted for his impeachment. Of those 37, eight were outright defeated during this Primary Election, eight are now in a runoff, while 21 were able to hold onto their seats.
Governor Abbott also had a hit list consisting of 14 Republicans who voted against school choice. Of those he targeted, only two were able to hold onto their seats on election night and five are now in a runoff.
Three of those on Governor Abbott’s hit list, Travis Clardy (HD 11), Four Price (HD 87), and Ed Thompson (HD 29), voted against the Paxton impeachment but then voted to defeat school choice so they found themselves targeted by the Governor.
Clardy and Price both lost outright. Thompson retired, but on his way out endorsed former Pearland City Council Member Jeffrey Barry to replace him. Barry also is against school choice and is supported by the Charles Butt Public Education PAC, a Political Action Committee formed by the owner of H-E-B to support candidates who oppose school choice and public charter schools. Barry is now in a runoff against Alex Kamkar, who is endorsed by Governor Abbott, Texas Senator Mayes Middleton (SD 11), and Senator Ted Cruz.
Probably the biggest victory for Attorney General Paxton was pushing House Speaker Dade Phelan into a runoff with former Orange County GOP Chairman David Covey, who is endorsed by Paxton and Trump. Only one other Texas House Speaker has been in a runoff election in Texas and he lost reelection in 1972.
Other Paxton Endorsements
Paxton also scored big with his endorsements of the three Criminal Court of Appeals Justices, Lee Finley, Gina Parker, and David Schenck. All three defeated their incumbent opponents. In Montgomery County, State Republican Executive Committee Member and Precinct 72 Chair, Gwen Withrow, who also was endorsed by Paxton as well as Republican Party of Texas Chair Matt Rinaldi and other conservative leaders, defeated her incumbent opponent, Bryan Christ.
Upcoming Elections
Thank you to every Republican voter who made your voice heard during the Primary Election! The voters of Montgomery County did their research and spoke loud and clear. This is what it takes to defend Texas and save America.
We urge you to begin preparing now for the upcoming May elections. Early voting begins April 22 for the Uniform Election and May 20 for the Montgomery County Sheriff Runoff. Visit our Upcoming Elections page to learn more about these elections and view tips for researching the candidates. Click here for conservative voter guides that you may find useful for the Montgomery County Sheriff Runoff Election.